What should a team that's been rebuilding for 20 years do following a high-expectation, low-achievement season? Well, if you read the media reports that have been dogging the Toronto Blue Jays since midseason, it seems to be to trade away the core of the team. Before I go any further, let it be known that I am dead-set against trading either José Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion. To build a team, there must be a central force around which everything else orbits--a core which the fanbase recognizes as its own. It also determines where the team's strength is and which holes must be filled. To trade from the core is to declare that core inadequate, which essentially sends a message that all of the hole-fillers are misplaced.
The Blue Jays may be a curious exception to the "inadequacy" argument. With the acquisitions of a Cy Young Award winning pitcher, a batting champion, and multiple all-stars last season, the Jays expanded their core (or at least the potential "core") to bursting point. Some may argue that there are too many stars on the team. I'm not sure about that, but the number of stars does mean that losing one does not mean completely uprooting the franchise again.
To trade José Bautista is not only to surrender the centre of that core, but also a fan favourite, and the first star the Jays have had since Roy Halladay. Although he's not technically "homegrown", he didn't come into his own, or really show any kind of potential, until he had spent some time in Toronto, and for that he feels as close to homegrown as one can get without actually being. The Jays lack talent that is completely "theirs"; that is, developed in-house. The only remaining homegrown stars are Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, and Brett Cecil, and the former hasn't shown star power in many seasons (and is rumoured to be on the trading block).
But let's say, just for a second, that the Jays did trade Bautista. What would they get for him? Better yet, what should they get for him. Trading Bautista for the sake of trading Bautista is illogical, so what would be worth Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays' while?
Let's start with who might be interested:
Texas seems like a likely candidate, particularly considering their rumoured midseason interest in Toronto's sluggers. The Rangers probably aren't comfortable with Chris Gentry, Leonys Martin, and Alex Rios as their three outfielders heading into 2014. Their interest in Bautista will be especially piqued as a result of the loss of Nelson Cruz. So what can the Jays get from the Rangers? There would have to be an outfielder coming back, so Martin is a given. He was baseball's #97 prospect (as per MLB pre-season rankings) this past season and showed good speed in 2013, stealing 36 bases while batting .260 with 8 HR and 49 RBI. A pitching requirement might see Derek Holland (long rumoured to be a target of Anthopoulos's) coming north of the border. The lefty was 10-9 in 2013 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. As a #4 starter, he would be a solid fit in the Jays' rotation. That he's been successful against the AL East is an added benefit. To trade a 4 time all-star and 2 time home run champion would probably require at least one more piece coming to the Jays (although possibly with a small, minor league piece heading to Texas as well). Perhaps a medium-level prospect such as RHP Cody Buckel or RHP Luke Jackson might fit the bill.
To sum it up:
to TEX: José Bautista, possible average prospect
to TOR: Leonys Martin, Derek Holland, B-grade prospect
Sound like too much for a guy who's been seriously injured the past two seasons? It is. But this is the only way Bautista goes anywhere.
We'll ignore teams in serious rebuilds (ie. the Astros) and those with low budgets (ie. the Athletics) as we continue.
So who's next?
The Cubs have been one of baseball's worst teams for a long time, but their infield is shaping up nicely and they may be a couple of big pieces away from contending (albeit in a tough division). Unfortunately, Chicago may not have the pieces to make a deal. Toronto's still interested in contending, which means Major League talent is a must--and to trade Major League talent would put the Cubs ten steps back. Anthony Rizzo would be a must in the deal, and that likely puts the Cubs out of contention in the José Bautista sweepstakes.
The Giants could do with an upgrade on Gregor Blanco, but what would in cost? Tim Lincecum would be an interesting possibility--and given his recent struggles the Giants would likely be more willing to move him now than previously. But unless Buster Posey miraculously come available, the Giants don't have much that would upgrade the Jays roster substantially.
The Indians could be interested in bettering right field, currently manned by Drew Stubbs, who batted .233 in 2013. Justin Masterson had a good season, and the Indians may be unwilling to give up their opening day starter, but with the Jays' need for pitching, he seems like a must-have in a trade. Including Stubbs in a trade would seem likely, to balance the outfield imbalance which would be created in Toronto. A deal this big would likely require many parts on behalf of both teams. Here's a possible scenario:
To Toronto: Justin Masterson, Drew Stubbs, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, a top prospect
to Cleveland: José Bautista, JP Arenbicia, Ryan Goins, a B-grade prospect
Again, Toronto wins this deal by a landslide, but Cleveland is far from left empty-handed. Beyond Bautista, Ryan Goins showed some gold glove potential at second base last season, and if Arencibia can find his game, he could be an all-star catcher in the future.
The Mets and Pirates may be interested, but lack the Major League talent to close a deal.
The Reds have expressed interest in trading Brandon Phillips, which would fill the Jays' second base hole. A much larger deal would be required on both sides, likely seeing Arencibia and Ryan Hanigan being exchanged for one another, a pitcher (such as Mat Latos?) coming north, and some prospects changing hands.
If the Royals are interested in a power bat despite their large stadium, a deal could happen. Eric Hosmer would seem to be a definite part of the trade. Alternatively, the Jays might try to wrangle gold glover Salvador Perez from Kansas City, although this seems unlikely. Lorenzo Cain would likely come to Toronto, and there would have to be a pitcher in there somewhere.
If the Tigers wish to upgrade on Andy Dirks, they may look to Bautista. Max Scherzer is already rumoured to be on the block and would be a likely candidate coming the other way. Dirks would also have to be part of the deal. With no other obvious Major League talent to send to Toronto (Alex Avila is not defensively sound enough to effectively replace JP Arencibia), a top prospect would have to round out the deal.
Finally, the White Sox may show some interest. There have already been rumours of Anthopoulos pursuing Gordon Beckham. Blue Jays rumours must always be taken with a grain of salt, but if there's truth in it, he could be a central part of the package coming to Toronto. Either Avisail Garcia or Dayan Viciedo would have to be included, likely the former. After this, a pitcher, such as Jose Quintana or Hector Santiago would close out a deal. There have been rumours of the Jays having interest in John Danks, but he is not of high enough quality to be the lone pitcher in the trade.
In the end, I think the most likely scenario would see José Bautista start 2014 with the Jays. But keep these possibilities in mind as the offseason wears on.
Tuesday, 12 November 2013
Thursday, 7 November 2013
2013-4 Blue Jays Offseason Needs
To describe the Jays' 2013 season as subpar would be an understatement. It was a season of attacks (see: JP Arencibia), lack of discipline, poor fielding, losses, strikeouts (see: JP Arencibia), and injuries (see: Brett Lawrie, José Reyes, Sergio Santos, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson x2, Melky Cabrera, José Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, JA Happ, Ramón Ortiz, Colby Rasmus, Brett Cecil, etc.). This is not to say that there were no positives: The selections of Brett Cecil and Steve Delabar to the American League All-Star team was representative of a cross-bullpen improvement that saw the Jays go from the worst bullpen ERA in the AL in 2012 to 4th in 2013; Casey Janssen emerged as the 'pen's best pitcher two seasons ago and proved his mettle as a closer in his first full season in the role (34/36 in save opportunities, 2.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP); Ryan Goins jumped from off-the-radar to a favourite for the starting job at second base next season, making plays like this constantly. (And while we're talking great plays, here's my pick for defensive play of the year).
While I'm sure I haven't named all of this season's positives (sorry Munenori), the point is that, after the hype of last offseason, no Jays fan was expecting individual improvements or achievements to be the only things to smile about in 2013. So what to do with a team that went 74-88 last season? The reflex answer is likely: uproot the foundations, get what you can for the veterans, and rebuild, rebuild, REBUILD. The problem: this is the result of the rebuild. This doesn't mean that the rebuild was wrong, however. It means the talent is there and, with a few additions, may be able to achieve the expectations of this season. So where need these additions/upgrades be? Here's my list:
Manager: GM Alex Anthopoulos announced long ago that incumbent manager John Gibbons will return in the 2014 season, so I will not dwell long here, but it is important to note that, while Gibby can't be blamed for all of the injuries and poor performances this season, never at any point did it feel as though he did anything to improve on even a small part of the problems the team experienced. Where was the motivation? Where was the central leader? Where was the fire? The manager can't force the players to play well, but he can at least contribute to their mental states. And let's be honest, the Jays are a mentally volatile team of youngsters who are quickly losing confidence in their own abilities.
The Training Staff: To be clear, I don't blame George Poulis and Mike Frostad for the bevy of injuries the Blue Jays experienced this season, but it does feel, sometimes, as though guys who aren't really that injured are taking "precautionary" stints on the DL. I think toughness definitely needs some work, and the training staff has to start picking and choosing which injuries are really serious. (And in terms of player attitudes, the games in April are equally important as the games in September, so if they'd play with their injuries in September, why not play with them now and take September off, after you've clinched?)
Catcher: With JP Arencibia's off-year (.194 BA, 148K, 18 BB, a league-leading 11 errors at Catcher) and inability to take criticism (read: the Gregg Zaun-Dirk Hayhurst incident), the potential the team saw in him (enough to trade top-prospect Travis d'Arnaud in the RA Dickey deal) is being drawn into question. If this team has any intentions of competing next season, they need a sure-thing behind the plate. And it's not Josh Thole, despite his fine fielding. Some rumours have linked the Jays to the Angels' Hank Conger and Chris Ianetta. A deal for either of these players would be illogical. Neither is significantly better than Thole, so if the team sees either as a potential starter, they'd be better off to give Thole the job that give away assets to acquire Josh Thole 2.0. (A deal that included either of these players as well as Angels 2B Howie Kendrick might make sense if the Jays do not overpay. It would be especially sensible if Arencibia were going to Los Angeles in the deal, although I can't imagine Mike Scioscia would be happy with this.)
Pitchers: No, unlike Alex Anthopoulos, I don't believe this is the team's #1 concern. But it's up there. With Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Brandon Morrow returning next year, there are only 2 spots in the rotation left to fill. Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison (particularly the latter, who was recently named AFL Pitcher of the Week) have performed well in the Majors before and should get another chance at the rotation. Dustin McGowan had a great year in the bullpen and is looking to return to his former role. JA Happ is always a possibility to make a strong back-end starter. Todd Redmond had some great appearances this season (although I wouldn't trust him long-term), and Esmil Rogers is a fine backup plan. Yes, the team needs more than what they have, but perhaps not to the degree that is being declared by the media. A Ubaldo Jimenez is too risky for a guy who struggled the past few seasons before finally figuring it out in a contract year. A reunion with Roy Halladay would be too perfect, but (sorry, fans) it seems unlikely. Bartolo Colon had some good games for the Yankees a few years back and pitched well for the A's this year, but can he handle the AL East again? (the Jays have experience with PED-suspended players) What about trades? David Price is unlikely, as it would be an intra-division deal. Max Scherzer would be a nice add, but is he worth Aaron Sanchez and the many other top prospects he would assuredly cost? The Jays may be wise to bring back Josh Johnson, who will be available below value and has a lot to prove this coming season. One must recall he was a 2 time All-Star earlier in his career and he's still only 29.
*Second Base: I put this here only because an upgrade can never hurt. As previously mentioned, Goins was one of the few bright spots to the season, but he's also inexperienced and was not meant to be the second baseman of the future. Nevertheless, he has a good chance at the job next season, especially if Maicer Izturis continues to play as he did this past season (.263/5/32 with 10 errors). With top-end talent potentially in the market in former all-stars Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips, the potential exists to replace Goins, at least for the time being. This is not an urgent need, but it is one to keep an eye on.
As for the rest of the prominent positions on the team, there are imperfections. But to give up on the talent acquired in the 2012 offseason because of one off-season would be a tremendous waste. It will be interesting to see how the Jays and Anthopoulos handle the 2013-4 offseason.
While I'm sure I haven't named all of this season's positives (sorry Munenori), the point is that, after the hype of last offseason, no Jays fan was expecting individual improvements or achievements to be the only things to smile about in 2013. So what to do with a team that went 74-88 last season? The reflex answer is likely: uproot the foundations, get what you can for the veterans, and rebuild, rebuild, REBUILD. The problem: this is the result of the rebuild. This doesn't mean that the rebuild was wrong, however. It means the talent is there and, with a few additions, may be able to achieve the expectations of this season. So where need these additions/upgrades be? Here's my list:
Manager: GM Alex Anthopoulos announced long ago that incumbent manager John Gibbons will return in the 2014 season, so I will not dwell long here, but it is important to note that, while Gibby can't be blamed for all of the injuries and poor performances this season, never at any point did it feel as though he did anything to improve on even a small part of the problems the team experienced. Where was the motivation? Where was the central leader? Where was the fire? The manager can't force the players to play well, but he can at least contribute to their mental states. And let's be honest, the Jays are a mentally volatile team of youngsters who are quickly losing confidence in their own abilities.
The Training Staff: To be clear, I don't blame George Poulis and Mike Frostad for the bevy of injuries the Blue Jays experienced this season, but it does feel, sometimes, as though guys who aren't really that injured are taking "precautionary" stints on the DL. I think toughness definitely needs some work, and the training staff has to start picking and choosing which injuries are really serious. (And in terms of player attitudes, the games in April are equally important as the games in September, so if they'd play with their injuries in September, why not play with them now and take September off, after you've clinched?)
Catcher: With JP Arencibia's off-year (.194 BA, 148K, 18 BB, a league-leading 11 errors at Catcher) and inability to take criticism (read: the Gregg Zaun-Dirk Hayhurst incident), the potential the team saw in him (enough to trade top-prospect Travis d'Arnaud in the RA Dickey deal) is being drawn into question. If this team has any intentions of competing next season, they need a sure-thing behind the plate. And it's not Josh Thole, despite his fine fielding. Some rumours have linked the Jays to the Angels' Hank Conger and Chris Ianetta. A deal for either of these players would be illogical. Neither is significantly better than Thole, so if the team sees either as a potential starter, they'd be better off to give Thole the job that give away assets to acquire Josh Thole 2.0. (A deal that included either of these players as well as Angels 2B Howie Kendrick might make sense if the Jays do not overpay. It would be especially sensible if Arencibia were going to Los Angeles in the deal, although I can't imagine Mike Scioscia would be happy with this.)
Pitchers: No, unlike Alex Anthopoulos, I don't believe this is the team's #1 concern. But it's up there. With Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Brandon Morrow returning next year, there are only 2 spots in the rotation left to fill. Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison (particularly the latter, who was recently named AFL Pitcher of the Week) have performed well in the Majors before and should get another chance at the rotation. Dustin McGowan had a great year in the bullpen and is looking to return to his former role. JA Happ is always a possibility to make a strong back-end starter. Todd Redmond had some great appearances this season (although I wouldn't trust him long-term), and Esmil Rogers is a fine backup plan. Yes, the team needs more than what they have, but perhaps not to the degree that is being declared by the media. A Ubaldo Jimenez is too risky for a guy who struggled the past few seasons before finally figuring it out in a contract year. A reunion with Roy Halladay would be too perfect, but (sorry, fans) it seems unlikely. Bartolo Colon had some good games for the Yankees a few years back and pitched well for the A's this year, but can he handle the AL East again? (the Jays have experience with PED-suspended players) What about trades? David Price is unlikely, as it would be an intra-division deal. Max Scherzer would be a nice add, but is he worth Aaron Sanchez and the many other top prospects he would assuredly cost? The Jays may be wise to bring back Josh Johnson, who will be available below value and has a lot to prove this coming season. One must recall he was a 2 time All-Star earlier in his career and he's still only 29.
*Second Base: I put this here only because an upgrade can never hurt. As previously mentioned, Goins was one of the few bright spots to the season, but he's also inexperienced and was not meant to be the second baseman of the future. Nevertheless, he has a good chance at the job next season, especially if Maicer Izturis continues to play as he did this past season (.263/5/32 with 10 errors). With top-end talent potentially in the market in former all-stars Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips, the potential exists to replace Goins, at least for the time being. This is not an urgent need, but it is one to keep an eye on.
As for the rest of the prominent positions on the team, there are imperfections. But to give up on the talent acquired in the 2012 offseason because of one off-season would be a tremendous waste. It will be interesting to see how the Jays and Anthopoulos handle the 2013-4 offseason.
Tuesday, 9 July 2013
Bread and Circuses?
JP
Arencibia's attacks on Dirk Hayhurst and Gregg Zaun surprised me. They seemed
out of line with the jovial, glass-half-full kind of personality that Arencibia
has nurtured through social media, media appearances and charitable works
within the city. Then a thought struck me: what if JP was just being a good,
solid company man?
After
all, isn't that what he has been all along? He wears Toronto on his sleeve like
a native. He proudly waves the flag of Canada even though he is of Cuban heritage
and was raised in the United States. JP's blood runs Blue Jay Blue and we didn't
have to beg him to feel that way.
So why
put on the mean face and make personal comments about Dirk Hayhurst and Gregg
Zaun? One Rogers employee taking shots at two other Rogers employees during an
interview on Rogers Sportsnet. Let's not forget that he tweets about his
intentions in advance (even though Twitter is not currently owned by Rogers).
Was this really JP's idea? Or was it just a way to get the headlines focussed
on something other than the seasonal woes?
Was it a
masterpiece of distraction? No, but it did serve to generate new conversations
with a different focus. Did the interview reflect badly on JP? You bet, but
maybe the company thought it was worthwhile for him to take one on the chin for
the team, knowing that he could bobblehead his way back into everyone's hearts
on Sunday. After all, how mad can you stay at a guy with an inherently good
nature who does selfless charitable work with underprivileged children and
cancer survivors? A sell-out crowd at the Rogers Centre seemed to answer that
with resounding cheers of "not long".
It's no
secret that the blanket of World Series expectations that kept this city warm
during the cold winter months has long since worn threadbare. When the
bandwagon rolled out of the gate in April, on four flat tires, there was still a
willingness for optimism. Give them some adjustment time! They are champions on
paper, they just have to learn to play together! When the walking wounded
return we will finally be at the top of our game! Then Munenori Kawasaki emerged and taught us
how to bow. His stringent work ethic, keen enthusiasm, and contagious sense of
baseball fun galvanized the city into chants of Ka-wa-sa-ki and frenzied
purchases of jerseys emblazoned with the number 66. Maybe we weren't winning,
but we all felt a little more like winners as we discovered what it meant to be
Japaneeeeeese!
Kawasaki
was a glorious distraction. If he hadn't existed, the front office would have
sold their souls to invent him. Then came that pesky eleven game stretch of
victories and all of a sudden the World Series optimism was back. Jose Reyes -
answer to all of the team's problems even though he hadn't been the answer in
the first place - was about to return. Should Muni stay or should he go? Should
he have gone and should he have come back? Even these debates helped defer
attention as the winning streak turned into a stretch of nightmarish losses,
despite Jose Reyes' presence in the lineup.
The
excuses have become weak. The team has had time to adjust and to learn to play
together. Reyes is back and, furthermore, the wounded Yankees seem capable of
blowing away the competition with a team stacked with Blue Jay castoffs. With
the All Star break looming, where is the accountability for a sub .500 record?
Cue the
distraction. A fight around the family dinner table. Some name calling, some
silly accusations. "No one on my team likes anyone on your team." An effort at
appeasement, a rebuff, a second round. No one gets sent to their room. Please
pass the dinner rolls.
I would
like to give JP the benefit of the doubt on this issue because it seems so far removed from his established character. With Steve Delabar's
highly touted campaign for the final All-Star roster spot gaining momentum, the country will be distracted by
endless on-line voting through Thursday. If the team can break even by the All-Star break then maybe, with a fresh start, the fans can get back to being distracted
by good baseball rather than being distracted by the circus. And maybe the solid
company man can get back to doing the job he is supposed to be doing, better.
Sunday, 7 July 2013
Blue Jays All-Stars
Until the All-Star teams are filled with statistically deserving players instead of just fan favourites and most of the Manager's own team, I will have no respect for the All-Star game. In fact, until the World Series home-field advantage aspect of the game is removed, I will have no respect for the All-Star game. Nevertheless, I like to see Blue Jays make the roster. Congratulations to Brett Cecil, José Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion for being selected! Encarnacion was a political victim last season, failing to make the All-Star team solely because Kansas City needed an All-Star and their best player happened to be Billy Butler (who also plays 1B/DH). He also should have won a Silver Slugger, but I digress. Bautista is only an All-Star because he has historically been an All-Star, and thus received numerous votes. It is nice to see this happen for a Blue Jay for a change, as it is usually Jays players who miss the All-Star team because of players such as this. Cecil has shocked the world with his sudden breakout season, and being a middle reliever, his selection certainly comes as a surprise. Of course, Cecil would be half the pitcher his is if not for Steve Delabar encouraging the use of Jamie Evans's Velocity program, which has worked so well for him. Thus, we should "#raisethebar" and vote Steve Delabar in the final vote.
One last note: Casey Janssen should have been named to the All-Star team. But I guess that, incredible as he is in Save situations, he does struggle outside of them, meaning that unless the All-Star game ends up with the American League leading by 3 or less in the 9th (with Jim Leyland wanting Janssen to be his Closer), Casey is probably not a useful addition to the team. Especially when the Manager expects to be a World Series contender. Well, next year...
One last note: Casey Janssen should have been named to the All-Star team. But I guess that, incredible as he is in Save situations, he does struggle outside of them, meaning that unless the All-Star game ends up with the American League leading by 3 or less in the 9th (with Jim Leyland wanting Janssen to be his Closer), Casey is probably not a useful addition to the team. Especially when the Manager expects to be a World Series contender. Well, next year...
Saturday, 6 July 2013
JP out of line
JP's rant was out of line. He was fully justified in criticizing the
comments and behaviours of Dirk & Zaun. They should show up in the
clubhouse to take the heat for their negative statements. But belittling their
viewpoint by claiming they are inadequate reviewers since they aren't drug-free
all-stars is pathetic. Just as is Arencibia's season (ok, I like the 15 dingers
but watching his current level of ineptness is insufferable). I wonder if Zaun
regrets praising JP for the excellent block of the plate a couple of days ago -
didn't hear that come up in the interview... And I wonder if Dirk now thinks he
may have made a bigger major league impact if he'd had a better minor league
catcher...
Friday, 5 July 2013
Maple Leafs Quick-Hits: Free Agency Updates: Bozak; Clarkson
Tyler Bozak has re-signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs for 5 years at $21-million. I like this deal for the Leafs as they keep a familiar player who has chemistry with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul at a fair value. Thankfully, the ridiculous 8-year, $40-million rumours are untrue.
Apparently, David Clarkson has agreed to sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs. I am afraid of how much money they are going to give him, and I do not like the long term (7 years). I like the way Clarkson plays and he always seems to score against the Leafs, so it is nice to eradicate that problem, but I am concerned that his aggressive play will get him IR'ed for much of that contract. He is also unproven long-term. Nevertheless, it is going to be an exciting season for the Leafs!
Stay tuned, more possibly to come!
2:20pm ET, update:
The Clarkson deal is now official! $5.25-million/season is definitely too much for someone with only one 30-goal season, but hopefully his all-around game will make up for the goals he does not score. I am not a huge fan of the deal itself, but I am a huge fan of the acquisition. I am torn.
5:23pm ET, update:
The Leafs have also signed 24-year old defenseman T.J. Brennan to a 1 year, $600,000 contract. I do not know much about Brennan, but I like this as a depth move. My only concern is that he will have a breakout season and the Leafs will lose him in free agency next year. We will see what happens.
Apparently, David Clarkson has agreed to sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs. I am afraid of how much money they are going to give him, and I do not like the long term (7 years). I like the way Clarkson plays and he always seems to score against the Leafs, so it is nice to eradicate that problem, but I am concerned that his aggressive play will get him IR'ed for much of that contract. He is also unproven long-term. Nevertheless, it is going to be an exciting season for the Leafs!
Stay tuned, more possibly to come!
2:20pm ET, update:
The Clarkson deal is now official! $5.25-million/season is definitely too much for someone with only one 30-goal season, but hopefully his all-around game will make up for the goals he does not score. I am not a huge fan of the deal itself, but I am a huge fan of the acquisition. I am torn.
5:23pm ET, update:
The Leafs have also signed 24-year old defenseman T.J. Brennan to a 1 year, $600,000 contract. I do not know much about Brennan, but I like this as a depth move. My only concern is that he will have a breakout season and the Leafs will lose him in free agency next year. We will see what happens.
Thursday, 4 July 2013
Maple Leafs Quick-Hits: Komisarek and Grabovski; Bozak; Bernier; Bolland; Free Agency
Mike Komisarek and Mikhail Grabovski are the Leafs' two picks for their compliance buyouts. Komisarek comes as no surprise due to his lack of performance and inability to stay on the team despite his $4.5-million salary. Grabovski was less certain. Grabovski struggled last year, but had been a strong player in the years leading up to 2013. If not for his $5.5-million cap-hit, he would assuredly have been kept around. It is sad to see him go, but with Nazem Kadri, Dave Bolland, and Jay McClement up the middle, Joe Colborne making strides, and the almost definite reality that the Leafs will sign a free agent Centre, Grabovski is just an expensive place-holder. And unless there is a team desperate to reach the cap floor, there are really no obvious takers for Grabovski at his his salary.
Rumours abound pertaining to Tyler Bozak's demands. The general consensus seems to be that he is looking for 8 years, although whether the value will be more or less than $5-million/season is uncertain. The buyout of Grabovski certainly sends a message to the Bozak camp. I expect Bozak will re-sign with the Leafs, but only after he realizes that he is not worth as much to other teams as a third-liner as he is to the Leafs as a first-liner.
Many fans have already fallen in love with Jonathan Bernier. I am not one of them. Nothing against Bernier, I just feel that the Leafs are not the right fit. I am biased because I have always been a Reimer fan, but let's be honest: Reimer stood on his head in the playoffs last year and the team would not have even made the playoffs without him. The acquisition of Bernier (a career backup) only makes the goalie who actually has experience as a starter start to question himself. Also, the high-potential Frattin and Scrivens were too high a price to pay for a backup netminder. The draft pick just made the overpayment greater. I think that Bernier will be the primary starter early in the season while Reimer is still doubting himself, but some time in January Reimer will find his game again and outplay Bernier so dramatically that the latter will hardly play again for the rest of the season.
Contrarily to my feelings about Bernier, I think that Dave Bolland was a great acquisition for the Leafs. I do not expect him to be much more than a third-line player, but I think he gives the team a much-better replacement for the departing Leo Komarov. He also has greater offensive upside.
With free agency opening tomorrow, it is time for all of the rumours to either come to fruition or shrivel up and die. Contrary to popular scuttlebutt, I do not think that the Leafs will successfully sign Stephen Weiss. I do, however, believe that they will push hard for David Clarkson. I just hope they do not seriously overpay him. Unlike the past few years, I expect the Leafs will actually sign someone significant tomorrow. In some ways this is unfortunate, because I fear that Dave Nonis may get caught up in the excitement of the free agency event and may make some questionable moves. Here's hoping for an uneventful day!
July 5, 12:12am ET, update:
It seems that Mikhail Grabovski had some choice parting words for now-former coach Randy Carlyle. To be honest, I think he is fully within his right to think what he does. I appreciate what Carlyle did with the team and the ways he improved their defensive game, but I do think that he did wrong by Grabovski. Perhaps Grabo was a bit extreme in his language, but his sentiments are fair. He is not the type of player that Carlyle tried to make him. In my opinion, the best coaches attempt to work within a player's style and coach them within what they are, and the worst coaches try to mould players into the types of players that the coach wants them to be (eg. François Allaire). I do not think Carlyle is one of the worst coaches, but I do think that this is pretty much what he did with Grabovski. Here's wishing Mikhail well in his future endeavours, preferably in the Western Conference.
Rumours abound pertaining to Tyler Bozak's demands. The general consensus seems to be that he is looking for 8 years, although whether the value will be more or less than $5-million/season is uncertain. The buyout of Grabovski certainly sends a message to the Bozak camp. I expect Bozak will re-sign with the Leafs, but only after he realizes that he is not worth as much to other teams as a third-liner as he is to the Leafs as a first-liner.
Many fans have already fallen in love with Jonathan Bernier. I am not one of them. Nothing against Bernier, I just feel that the Leafs are not the right fit. I am biased because I have always been a Reimer fan, but let's be honest: Reimer stood on his head in the playoffs last year and the team would not have even made the playoffs without him. The acquisition of Bernier (a career backup) only makes the goalie who actually has experience as a starter start to question himself. Also, the high-potential Frattin and Scrivens were too high a price to pay for a backup netminder. The draft pick just made the overpayment greater. I think that Bernier will be the primary starter early in the season while Reimer is still doubting himself, but some time in January Reimer will find his game again and outplay Bernier so dramatically that the latter will hardly play again for the rest of the season.
Contrarily to my feelings about Bernier, I think that Dave Bolland was a great acquisition for the Leafs. I do not expect him to be much more than a third-line player, but I think he gives the team a much-better replacement for the departing Leo Komarov. He also has greater offensive upside.
With free agency opening tomorrow, it is time for all of the rumours to either come to fruition or shrivel up and die. Contrary to popular scuttlebutt, I do not think that the Leafs will successfully sign Stephen Weiss. I do, however, believe that they will push hard for David Clarkson. I just hope they do not seriously overpay him. Unlike the past few years, I expect the Leafs will actually sign someone significant tomorrow. In some ways this is unfortunate, because I fear that Dave Nonis may get caught up in the excitement of the free agency event and may make some questionable moves. Here's hoping for an uneventful day!
July 5, 12:12am ET, update:
It seems that Mikhail Grabovski had some choice parting words for now-former coach Randy Carlyle. To be honest, I think he is fully within his right to think what he does. I appreciate what Carlyle did with the team and the ways he improved their defensive game, but I do think that he did wrong by Grabovski. Perhaps Grabo was a bit extreme in his language, but his sentiments are fair. He is not the type of player that Carlyle tried to make him. In my opinion, the best coaches attempt to work within a player's style and coach them within what they are, and the worst coaches try to mould players into the types of players that the coach wants them to be (eg. François Allaire). I do not think Carlyle is one of the worst coaches, but I do think that this is pretty much what he did with Grabovski. Here's wishing Mikhail well in his future endeavours, preferably in the Western Conference.
Toronto Blue Jays Mid-Season Grades
For this post, I will not be grading those players who are no longer with the organization, nor those who have had only a minimal impact on the team. Note that players have been rated based on overall performance, and not solely on numbers.
Starting Pitchers (W-L/ERA/WHIP):
Mark Buehrle: C+ After a shaky start to the season, Buehrle seems to have found his game. He is one of the more trustworthy starters on the team. (4-5/4.81/1.40)
R.A. Dickey: C+ Dickey has been the best and the worst pitcher on the team, at times. He seems to have found his knuckleball, which means an interesting second half is in store. (8-8/4.59/1.29)
Josh Johnson: D Before this season if you had asked me which player in the league I most wanted the Jays to acquire, I probably would have said Johnson. Unfortunately, he has been disappointing all season. (1-3/4.89/1.61)
Esmil Rogers: B A shaky reliever at the beginning of the season, Rogers has been the greatest surprise for the Jays this season. There is always a fear he will regress, though. (3-3/3.12/1.25)
Relief Pitchers (W-L/ERA/WHIP)
Brett Cecil: A Who would have expected that the player who struggled so much last season and in Spring Training would break the team record for most consecutive batters faced without surrendering a hit? (3-0/1.47/0.81)
Steve Delabar: A- The greatest thing he has done is not even his incredible performance: it is bringing Jamie Evans and the velocity program to Toronto. (5-1/1.58/1.25)
Aaron Loup: A- After coming out of nowhere last season, Loup has carried over his dominance--and confidence--into 2013. Loooooooooooooooooooup! (3-3/1.91/0.97)
Dustin McGowan: C+ After missing 2009, 2010, 2012, and most of 2011 with a myriad of injuries, McGowan finally looks healthy. His performance is starting to come around after a shaky start. (0-0/2.45/1.09)
Darren Oliver: B- Oliver was the team's second best pitcher in 2012, and he has been okay this year, but he has blown 2 saves before the ninth inning and looks hittable. (3-1/3.38/1.33)
Juan Perez: B He looked incredible in Spring Training, and he brought the magic of his unhittable dancing breaking ball to the Majors. (1-1/0.00/0.85)
Neil Wagner: B+ One of the few guys who seems to have control over his high-'90s fastballs. (1-3/2.45/1.09)
Closing Pitcher (SV-BSV/ERA/WHIP/W-L)
Casey Janssen: A+ The most deserving player on the team of an All-Star selection, Janssen has been lights-out for his third straight season. (17-18/2.03/0.71/2-0)
Catchers(BA/HR/RBI/OBP/F%/PB)
J.P. Arencibia: D A promising player who has shown flashes of brilliance, Arencibia has struggled with the bat since April and has struggled in the field all season. (.216/15/38/.244/.994/10)
Josh Thole: D+ After hitting .322 in the Buffalo, Thole has been cold with the bat in the Majors. But his defence has been stellar (as a catcher, not as a first baseman). (.103/0/2/.188/.981/0) * Only Catcher F% shown.
Infielders (BA/HR/RBI/OBP) (F%:position)
2B/UT Emilio Bonifacio: D- His speed is his only redeeming quality. He has been unable to hit, field, or bunt all season. (.210/2/13/.243/11) (2B: .973/OF: 1.000/SS: 1.000)
UT Mark DeRosa: C+ He is one of the best on the team in terms of baseball sense. DeRosa has also come through in the clutch a few times. (.205/5/24/.291/0) (1B: 1.000/2B: 1.000/ 3B: .900)
1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion: A- He has been best hitter on the team for the second consecutive season. He also stepped up when asked to play the dreaded hot corner. (.270/23/66/.350/3) (1B: .993/ 3B: .950)
UT Maicer Izturis: C He has finally found his swing and his glove after a very rocky start. (.228/5/20/.266/0) (2B: .973/3B: .959/SS: .956)
SS/2B Munenori Kawasaki: B His performance has been average--although he is very good at getting runners home from third. Kawasaki's personality has been a galvanizing factor for this team. (.224/1/18/.330/7) (SS: .977/2B: 1.000)
3B Brett Lawrie: D Injured at the start of the season, and now injured again, Lawrie struggled with the bat in his short time with the team. He defence was still stellar, although it seems he may have taken a step back since last season. (.209/5/14/.268/2) (3B: .955)
1B Adam Lind: A- Since 2009 he has struggled with the bat. Now he is the only player on the team batting over .300. (.322/11/33/.380/1) (1B: .994)
SS José Reyes: B+ Reyes is hard to judge due to his long injury, but he hit well prior to getting injured and now seems to be finding his bat again, albeit slowly. (.329/3/9/.383/5) (SS: 1.000)
Outfielders (BA/HR/RBI/OBP/SB) (F%:position)
José Bautista: B+ Bautista has been streaky this season, but he has come through in the clutch, hitting 4 game-tying home runs in the ninth inning or later. And do not forget his great defence and power-arm. (.264/19/50/.364/6) (OF: .977/3B: 1.000)
Melky Cabrera: B- Melky hit well in late-April/early-May, but has otherwise been fairly unnoticeable on the field. Hopefully his DL stint will give him the rest he needs to be effective. (.278/3/29/.321/2) (OF: 1.000)
Rajai Davis: B Davis seems to be working on his pitch recognition and has been much better as a starter than as a pinch-hitter this year. (.304/1/8/.345/21) (OF: 1.000)
Colby Rasmus: D Unlike Davis, Rasmus's pitch recognition has been awful this season, and he has racked up 101 strike outs. (.248/15/43/.321/0) (OF: .995)
Manager
John Gibbons: D- Early in the season, one could not blame him too much. After all, his players were not performing. Now, one starts to wonder if the lack of production may be because of him and not in spite of him. He has yet to make an innovative managerial decision, although he has made some questionable ones.
Team Outlook
The Blue Jays have made a fantastic comeback this season, although they have struggled since their 11-game winning streak ended. Nevertheless, they proved that they could win over that span. If not this season, the Jays are set to be contenders in 2014.
Starting Pitchers (W-L/ERA/WHIP):
Mark Buehrle: C+ After a shaky start to the season, Buehrle seems to have found his game. He is one of the more trustworthy starters on the team. (4-5/4.81/1.40)
R.A. Dickey: C+ Dickey has been the best and the worst pitcher on the team, at times. He seems to have found his knuckleball, which means an interesting second half is in store. (8-8/4.59/1.29)
Josh Johnson: D Before this season if you had asked me which player in the league I most wanted the Jays to acquire, I probably would have said Johnson. Unfortunately, he has been disappointing all season. (1-3/4.89/1.61)
Esmil Rogers: B A shaky reliever at the beginning of the season, Rogers has been the greatest surprise for the Jays this season. There is always a fear he will regress, though. (3-3/3.12/1.25)
Relief Pitchers (W-L/ERA/WHIP)
Brett Cecil: A Who would have expected that the player who struggled so much last season and in Spring Training would break the team record for most consecutive batters faced without surrendering a hit? (3-0/1.47/0.81)
Steve Delabar: A- The greatest thing he has done is not even his incredible performance: it is bringing Jamie Evans and the velocity program to Toronto. (5-1/1.58/1.25)
Aaron Loup: A- After coming out of nowhere last season, Loup has carried over his dominance--and confidence--into 2013. Loooooooooooooooooooup! (3-3/1.91/0.97)
Dustin McGowan: C+ After missing 2009, 2010, 2012, and most of 2011 with a myriad of injuries, McGowan finally looks healthy. His performance is starting to come around after a shaky start. (0-0/2.45/1.09)
Darren Oliver: B- Oliver was the team's second best pitcher in 2012, and he has been okay this year, but he has blown 2 saves before the ninth inning and looks hittable. (3-1/3.38/1.33)
Juan Perez: B He looked incredible in Spring Training, and he brought the magic of his unhittable dancing breaking ball to the Majors. (1-1/0.00/0.85)
Neil Wagner: B+ One of the few guys who seems to have control over his high-'90s fastballs. (1-3/2.45/1.09)
Closing Pitcher (SV-BSV/ERA/WHIP/W-L)
Casey Janssen: A+ The most deserving player on the team of an All-Star selection, Janssen has been lights-out for his third straight season. (17-18/2.03/0.71/2-0)
Catchers(BA/HR/RBI/OBP/F%/PB)
J.P. Arencibia: D A promising player who has shown flashes of brilliance, Arencibia has struggled with the bat since April and has struggled in the field all season. (.216/15/38/.244/.994/10)
Josh Thole: D+ After hitting .322 in the Buffalo, Thole has been cold with the bat in the Majors. But his defence has been stellar (as a catcher, not as a first baseman). (.103/0/2/.188/.981/0) * Only Catcher F% shown.
Infielders (BA/HR/RBI/OBP) (F%:position)
2B/UT Emilio Bonifacio: D- His speed is his only redeeming quality. He has been unable to hit, field, or bunt all season. (.210/2/13/.243/11) (2B: .973/OF: 1.000/SS: 1.000)
UT Mark DeRosa: C+ He is one of the best on the team in terms of baseball sense. DeRosa has also come through in the clutch a few times. (.205/5/24/.291/0) (1B: 1.000/2B: 1.000/ 3B: .900)
1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion: A- He has been best hitter on the team for the second consecutive season. He also stepped up when asked to play the dreaded hot corner. (.270/23/66/.350/3) (1B: .993/ 3B: .950)
UT Maicer Izturis: C He has finally found his swing and his glove after a very rocky start. (.228/5/20/.266/0) (2B: .973/3B: .959/SS: .956)
SS/2B Munenori Kawasaki: B His performance has been average--although he is very good at getting runners home from third. Kawasaki's personality has been a galvanizing factor for this team. (.224/1/18/.330/7) (SS: .977/2B: 1.000)
3B Brett Lawrie: D Injured at the start of the season, and now injured again, Lawrie struggled with the bat in his short time with the team. He defence was still stellar, although it seems he may have taken a step back since last season. (.209/5/14/.268/2) (3B: .955)
1B Adam Lind: A- Since 2009 he has struggled with the bat. Now he is the only player on the team batting over .300. (.322/11/33/.380/1) (1B: .994)
SS José Reyes: B+ Reyes is hard to judge due to his long injury, but he hit well prior to getting injured and now seems to be finding his bat again, albeit slowly. (.329/3/9/.383/5) (SS: 1.000)
Outfielders (BA/HR/RBI/OBP/SB) (F%:position)
José Bautista: B+ Bautista has been streaky this season, but he has come through in the clutch, hitting 4 game-tying home runs in the ninth inning or later. And do not forget his great defence and power-arm. (.264/19/50/.364/6) (OF: .977/3B: 1.000)
Melky Cabrera: B- Melky hit well in late-April/early-May, but has otherwise been fairly unnoticeable on the field. Hopefully his DL stint will give him the rest he needs to be effective. (.278/3/29/.321/2) (OF: 1.000)
Rajai Davis: B Davis seems to be working on his pitch recognition and has been much better as a starter than as a pinch-hitter this year. (.304/1/8/.345/21) (OF: 1.000)
Colby Rasmus: D Unlike Davis, Rasmus's pitch recognition has been awful this season, and he has racked up 101 strike outs. (.248/15/43/.321/0) (OF: .995)
Manager
John Gibbons: D- Early in the season, one could not blame him too much. After all, his players were not performing. Now, one starts to wonder if the lack of production may be because of him and not in spite of him. He has yet to make an innovative managerial decision, although he has made some questionable ones.
Team Outlook
The Blue Jays have made a fantastic comeback this season, although they have struggled since their 11-game winning streak ended. Nevertheless, they proved that they could win over that span. If not this season, the Jays are set to be contenders in 2014.
Blue Jays Quick-Hits: Arencibia; Second Base; Lawrie; Rasmus's Slide; Bautista
J.P. Arencibia took shots at Blue Jays commentators/analysts Dirk Hayhurst and Gregg Zaun on TheFan590 this morning. I understand that he is frustrated with his poor performance, but this is not the way to express his anger. This outburst would have been more appropriate if Arencibia's game were being picked apart despite his performing well. But he is not performing well. Since picking up 8 HRs and 16 RBI in April with a .253 BA, he has struggled to put together a 15/38/.216 line on the season. He has struck out 92 times. And we haven't even started talking about his defence. I do not care much about the Stolen Bases Against because it is an imperfect statistic, but the Passed Balls and questionable plate coverage are too much. Not to mention that he calls for way too many pitches outside of the strike zone. I think JP's tirade just confirmed what his performance already suggested: he needs some time in Buffalo. I believe he still has options. Who do they call up? Maybe recently-signed Ramon Hernandez?
The situation at second base for the Blue Jays is becoming unbearable, with Emilio Bonifacio making another error yesterday. Early in the season I was willing to give him a chance defensively, but that chance has expired. Maicer Izturis is performing better of late, but is more suitable as a backup, like Mark DeRosa and Munenori Kawasaki. If this team wants to contend, it is going to need a REAL second baseman--a true everyday player who is neither a hole in the batting order, nor the field. Darwin Barney is an interesting option who is presently available. Although his hitting will not be much of an improvement over the current quartet, he is known for his great defence. He also may be cheaper than other options, such as Chase Utley or Ian Kinsler. Utley is getting on and is owed a large sum of money, so it may be in the best interest of the team to avoid him. Kinsler is the most intriguing option. With Profar and Andrus up the middle, the Rangers are nearing the end of their need for the former All-Star second baseman. With a struggling rotation, the team may be interested in rent-a-player RHP Josh Johnson--who, granted, has not had the greatest of seasons, but has history on his side, as well as a familiarity with warm weather. Toss in a Darren Oliver (who will probably retire at the end of the season) or a Sergio Santos (who really does not fit in the Jays' powerful bullpen, anymore) as well as a prospect or two, and I think this deal could get done. Such a trade may also see one of the quartet heading to Texas as a backup plan.
As Brett Lawrie recovers from his eerily José-Reyes-esque ankle sprain, one major question arises: should he be recalled? Lawrie has a lot of heart and an intense attitude--something that has endeared him to some and antagonized him to others--and his glove would be an invaluable asset in the infield, but his bat has been weak all season. I think he should stay in the Minors until that aspect of his game comes around, otherwise he is more of a liability than an asset. As for his attitude, while he does go a little overboard on occasion, I do not mind the fire most of the time. He is still young (23), and the rougher edges will likely soften over time. He has too much talent to give up on, now.
Colby Rasmus kept his cleats down as he made a good, clean baseball slide into second, last night. The Tigers are still reeling from a heated series in Tampa, they are upset about how close Cleveland is to them in the standings, and they do not appreciate that their second baseman got injured. But honestly, they have to suck it up and stop whining. It was a clean, albeit unfortunate, play.
This is related to an issue I stumbled upon a few weeks ago--long before this Blog existed. Many people were upset with José Bautista's ejection on June 9th. I did not mind it. Bautista has exercised a lot of control this season, arguing much less. In fact, this was the first time I had seen him argue since early in the season. Furthermore, as it was the ninth inning and he was unlikely to come up again, there was really no better time to get ejected. To be honest, the most irritating thing about the whole play was the way John Gibbons downplayed it and calmed the situation rather than trying to keep the fire alive under Edwin Encarnacion, who could have tied the game or even won it, had there still been any energy alive. The manager MUST get ejected when his star player is ejected.
The situation at second base for the Blue Jays is becoming unbearable, with Emilio Bonifacio making another error yesterday. Early in the season I was willing to give him a chance defensively, but that chance has expired. Maicer Izturis is performing better of late, but is more suitable as a backup, like Mark DeRosa and Munenori Kawasaki. If this team wants to contend, it is going to need a REAL second baseman--a true everyday player who is neither a hole in the batting order, nor the field. Darwin Barney is an interesting option who is presently available. Although his hitting will not be much of an improvement over the current quartet, he is known for his great defence. He also may be cheaper than other options, such as Chase Utley or Ian Kinsler. Utley is getting on and is owed a large sum of money, so it may be in the best interest of the team to avoid him. Kinsler is the most intriguing option. With Profar and Andrus up the middle, the Rangers are nearing the end of their need for the former All-Star second baseman. With a struggling rotation, the team may be interested in rent-a-player RHP Josh Johnson--who, granted, has not had the greatest of seasons, but has history on his side, as well as a familiarity with warm weather. Toss in a Darren Oliver (who will probably retire at the end of the season) or a Sergio Santos (who really does not fit in the Jays' powerful bullpen, anymore) as well as a prospect or two, and I think this deal could get done. Such a trade may also see one of the quartet heading to Texas as a backup plan.
As Brett Lawrie recovers from his eerily José-Reyes-esque ankle sprain, one major question arises: should he be recalled? Lawrie has a lot of heart and an intense attitude--something that has endeared him to some and antagonized him to others--and his glove would be an invaluable asset in the infield, but his bat has been weak all season. I think he should stay in the Minors until that aspect of his game comes around, otherwise he is more of a liability than an asset. As for his attitude, while he does go a little overboard on occasion, I do not mind the fire most of the time. He is still young (23), and the rougher edges will likely soften over time. He has too much talent to give up on, now.
Colby Rasmus kept his cleats down as he made a good, clean baseball slide into second, last night. The Tigers are still reeling from a heated series in Tampa, they are upset about how close Cleveland is to them in the standings, and they do not appreciate that their second baseman got injured. But honestly, they have to suck it up and stop whining. It was a clean, albeit unfortunate, play.
This is related to an issue I stumbled upon a few weeks ago--long before this Blog existed. Many people were upset with José Bautista's ejection on June 9th. I did not mind it. Bautista has exercised a lot of control this season, arguing much less. In fact, this was the first time I had seen him argue since early in the season. Furthermore, as it was the ninth inning and he was unlikely to come up again, there was really no better time to get ejected. To be honest, the most irritating thing about the whole play was the way John Gibbons downplayed it and calmed the situation rather than trying to keep the fire alive under Edwin Encarnacion, who could have tied the game or even won it, had there still been any energy alive. The manager MUST get ejected when his star player is ejected.
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