What should a team that's been rebuilding for 20 years do following a high-expectation, low-achievement season? Well, if you read the media reports that have been dogging the Toronto Blue Jays since midseason, it seems to be to trade away the core of the team. Before I go any further, let it be known that I am dead-set against trading either José Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion. To build a team, there must be a central force around which everything else orbits--a core which the fanbase recognizes as its own. It also determines where the team's strength is and which holes must be filled. To trade from the core is to declare that core inadequate, which essentially sends a message that all of the hole-fillers are misplaced.
The Blue Jays may be a curious exception to the "inadequacy" argument. With the acquisitions of a Cy Young Award winning pitcher, a batting champion, and multiple all-stars last season, the Jays expanded their core (or at least the potential "core") to bursting point. Some may argue that there are too many stars on the team. I'm not sure about that, but the number of stars does mean that losing one does not mean completely uprooting the franchise again.
To trade José Bautista is not only to surrender the centre of that core, but also a fan favourite, and the first star the Jays have had since Roy Halladay. Although he's not technically "homegrown", he didn't come into his own, or really show any kind of potential, until he had spent some time in Toronto, and for that he feels as close to homegrown as one can get without actually being. The Jays lack talent that is completely "theirs"; that is, developed in-house. The only remaining homegrown stars are Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, and Brett Cecil, and the former hasn't shown star power in many seasons (and is rumoured to be on the trading block).
But let's say, just for a second, that the Jays did trade Bautista. What would they get for him? Better yet, what should they get for him. Trading Bautista for the sake of trading Bautista is illogical, so what would be worth Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays' while?
Let's start with who might be interested:
Texas seems like a likely candidate, particularly considering their rumoured midseason interest in Toronto's sluggers. The Rangers probably aren't comfortable with Chris Gentry, Leonys Martin, and Alex Rios as their three outfielders heading into 2014. Their interest in Bautista will be especially piqued as a result of the loss of Nelson Cruz. So what can the Jays get from the Rangers? There would have to be an outfielder coming back, so Martin is a given. He was baseball's #97 prospect (as per MLB pre-season rankings) this past season and showed good speed in 2013, stealing 36 bases while batting .260 with 8 HR and 49 RBI. A pitching requirement might see Derek Holland (long rumoured to be a target of Anthopoulos's) coming north of the border. The lefty was 10-9 in 2013 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. As a #4 starter, he would be a solid fit in the Jays' rotation. That he's been successful against the AL East is an added benefit. To trade a 4 time all-star and 2 time home run champion would probably require at least one more piece coming to the Jays (although possibly with a small, minor league piece heading to Texas as well). Perhaps a medium-level prospect such as RHP Cody Buckel or RHP Luke Jackson might fit the bill.
To sum it up:
to TEX: José Bautista, possible average prospect
to TOR: Leonys Martin, Derek Holland, B-grade prospect
Sound like too much for a guy who's been seriously injured the past two seasons? It is. But this is the only way Bautista goes anywhere.
We'll ignore teams in serious rebuilds (ie. the Astros) and those with low budgets (ie. the Athletics) as we continue.
So who's next?
The Cubs have been one of baseball's worst teams for a long time, but their infield is shaping up nicely and they may be a couple of big pieces away from contending (albeit in a tough division). Unfortunately, Chicago may not have the pieces to make a deal. Toronto's still interested in contending, which means Major League talent is a must--and to trade Major League talent would put the Cubs ten steps back. Anthony Rizzo would be a must in the deal, and that likely puts the Cubs out of contention in the José Bautista sweepstakes.
The Giants could do with an upgrade on Gregor Blanco, but what would in cost? Tim Lincecum would be an interesting possibility--and given his recent struggles the Giants would likely be more willing to move him now than previously. But unless Buster Posey miraculously come available, the Giants don't have much that would upgrade the Jays roster substantially.
The Indians could be interested in bettering right field, currently manned by Drew Stubbs, who batted .233 in 2013. Justin Masterson had a good season, and the Indians may be unwilling to give up their opening day starter, but with the Jays' need for pitching, he seems like a must-have in a trade. Including Stubbs in a trade would seem likely, to balance the outfield imbalance which would be created in Toronto. A deal this big would likely require many parts on behalf of both teams. Here's a possible scenario:
To Toronto: Justin Masterson, Drew Stubbs, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, a top prospect
to Cleveland: José Bautista, JP Arenbicia, Ryan Goins, a B-grade prospect
Again, Toronto wins this deal by a landslide, but Cleveland is far from left empty-handed. Beyond Bautista, Ryan Goins showed some gold glove potential at second base last season, and if Arencibia can find his game, he could be an all-star catcher in the future.
The Mets and Pirates may be interested, but lack the Major League talent to close a deal.
The Reds have expressed interest in trading Brandon Phillips, which would fill the Jays' second base hole. A much larger deal would be required on both sides, likely seeing Arencibia and Ryan Hanigan being exchanged for one another, a pitcher (such as Mat Latos?) coming north, and some prospects changing hands.
If the Royals are interested in a power bat despite their large stadium, a deal could happen. Eric Hosmer would seem to be a definite part of the trade. Alternatively, the Jays might try to wrangle gold glover Salvador Perez from Kansas City, although this seems unlikely. Lorenzo Cain would likely come to Toronto, and there would have to be a pitcher in there somewhere.
If the Tigers wish to upgrade on Andy Dirks, they may look to Bautista. Max Scherzer is already rumoured to be on the block and would be a likely candidate coming the other way. Dirks would also have to be part of the deal. With no other obvious Major League talent to send to Toronto (Alex Avila is not defensively sound enough to effectively replace JP Arencibia), a top prospect would have to round out the deal.
Finally, the White Sox may show some interest. There have already been rumours of Anthopoulos pursuing Gordon Beckham. Blue Jays rumours must always be taken with a grain of salt, but if there's truth in it, he could be a central part of the package coming to Toronto. Either Avisail Garcia or Dayan Viciedo would have to be included, likely the former. After this, a pitcher, such as Jose Quintana or Hector Santiago would close out a deal. There have been rumours of the Jays having interest in John Danks, but he is not of high enough quality to be the lone pitcher in the trade.
In the end, I think the most likely scenario would see José Bautista start 2014 with the Jays. But keep these possibilities in mind as the offseason wears on.
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