What should a team that's been rebuilding for 20 years do following a high-expectation, low-achievement season? Well, if you read the media reports that have been dogging the Toronto Blue Jays since midseason, it seems to be to trade away the core of the team. Before I go any further, let it be known that I am dead-set against trading either José Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion. To build a team, there must be a central force around which everything else orbits--a core which the fanbase recognizes as its own. It also determines where the team's strength is and which holes must be filled. To trade from the core is to declare that core inadequate, which essentially sends a message that all of the hole-fillers are misplaced.
The Blue Jays may be a curious exception to the "inadequacy" argument. With the acquisitions of a Cy Young Award winning pitcher, a batting champion, and multiple all-stars last season, the Jays expanded their core (or at least the potential "core") to bursting point. Some may argue that there are too many stars on the team. I'm not sure about that, but the number of stars does mean that losing one does not mean completely uprooting the franchise again.
To trade José Bautista is not only to surrender the centre of that core, but also a fan favourite, and the first star the Jays have had since Roy Halladay. Although he's not technically "homegrown", he didn't come into his own, or really show any kind of potential, until he had spent some time in Toronto, and for that he feels as close to homegrown as one can get without actually being. The Jays lack talent that is completely "theirs"; that is, developed in-house. The only remaining homegrown stars are Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, and Brett Cecil, and the former hasn't shown star power in many seasons (and is rumoured to be on the trading block).
But let's say, just for a second, that the Jays did trade Bautista. What would they get for him? Better yet, what should they get for him. Trading Bautista for the sake of trading Bautista is illogical, so what would be worth Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays' while?
Let's start with who might be interested:
Texas seems like a likely candidate, particularly considering their rumoured midseason interest in Toronto's sluggers. The Rangers probably aren't comfortable with Chris Gentry, Leonys Martin, and Alex Rios as their three outfielders heading into 2014. Their interest in Bautista will be especially piqued as a result of the loss of Nelson Cruz. So what can the Jays get from the Rangers? There would have to be an outfielder coming back, so Martin is a given. He was baseball's #97 prospect (as per MLB pre-season rankings) this past season and showed good speed in 2013, stealing 36 bases while batting .260 with 8 HR and 49 RBI. A pitching requirement might see Derek Holland (long rumoured to be a target of Anthopoulos's) coming north of the border. The lefty was 10-9 in 2013 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. As a #4 starter, he would be a solid fit in the Jays' rotation. That he's been successful against the AL East is an added benefit. To trade a 4 time all-star and 2 time home run champion would probably require at least one more piece coming to the Jays (although possibly with a small, minor league piece heading to Texas as well). Perhaps a medium-level prospect such as RHP Cody Buckel or RHP Luke Jackson might fit the bill.
To sum it up:
to TEX: José Bautista, possible average prospect
to TOR: Leonys Martin, Derek Holland, B-grade prospect
Sound like too much for a guy who's been seriously injured the past two seasons? It is. But this is the only way Bautista goes anywhere.
We'll ignore teams in serious rebuilds (ie. the Astros) and those with low budgets (ie. the Athletics) as we continue.
So who's next?
The Cubs have been one of baseball's worst teams for a long time, but their infield is shaping up nicely and they may be a couple of big pieces away from contending (albeit in a tough division). Unfortunately, Chicago may not have the pieces to make a deal. Toronto's still interested in contending, which means Major League talent is a must--and to trade Major League talent would put the Cubs ten steps back. Anthony Rizzo would be a must in the deal, and that likely puts the Cubs out of contention in the José Bautista sweepstakes.
The Giants could do with an upgrade on Gregor Blanco, but what would in cost? Tim Lincecum would be an interesting possibility--and given his recent struggles the Giants would likely be more willing to move him now than previously. But unless Buster Posey miraculously come available, the Giants don't have much that would upgrade the Jays roster substantially.
The Indians could be interested in bettering right field, currently manned by Drew Stubbs, who batted .233 in 2013. Justin Masterson had a good season, and the Indians may be unwilling to give up their opening day starter, but with the Jays' need for pitching, he seems like a must-have in a trade. Including Stubbs in a trade would seem likely, to balance the outfield imbalance which would be created in Toronto. A deal this big would likely require many parts on behalf of both teams. Here's a possible scenario:
To Toronto: Justin Masterson, Drew Stubbs, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, a top prospect
to Cleveland: José Bautista, JP Arenbicia, Ryan Goins, a B-grade prospect
Again, Toronto wins this deal by a landslide, but Cleveland is far from left empty-handed. Beyond Bautista, Ryan Goins showed some gold glove potential at second base last season, and if Arencibia can find his game, he could be an all-star catcher in the future.
The Mets and Pirates may be interested, but lack the Major League talent to close a deal.
The Reds have expressed interest in trading Brandon Phillips, which would fill the Jays' second base hole. A much larger deal would be required on both sides, likely seeing Arencibia and Ryan Hanigan being exchanged for one another, a pitcher (such as Mat Latos?) coming north, and some prospects changing hands.
If the Royals are interested in a power bat despite their large stadium, a deal could happen. Eric Hosmer would seem to be a definite part of the trade. Alternatively, the Jays might try to wrangle gold glover Salvador Perez from Kansas City, although this seems unlikely. Lorenzo Cain would likely come to Toronto, and there would have to be a pitcher in there somewhere.
If the Tigers wish to upgrade on Andy Dirks, they may look to Bautista. Max Scherzer is already rumoured to be on the block and would be a likely candidate coming the other way. Dirks would also have to be part of the deal. With no other obvious Major League talent to send to Toronto (Alex Avila is not defensively sound enough to effectively replace JP Arencibia), a top prospect would have to round out the deal.
Finally, the White Sox may show some interest. There have already been rumours of Anthopoulos pursuing Gordon Beckham. Blue Jays rumours must always be taken with a grain of salt, but if there's truth in it, he could be a central part of the package coming to Toronto. Either Avisail Garcia or Dayan Viciedo would have to be included, likely the former. After this, a pitcher, such as Jose Quintana or Hector Santiago would close out a deal. There have been rumours of the Jays having interest in John Danks, but he is not of high enough quality to be the lone pitcher in the trade.
In the end, I think the most likely scenario would see José Bautista start 2014 with the Jays. But keep these possibilities in mind as the offseason wears on.
Tuesday, 12 November 2013
Thursday, 7 November 2013
2013-4 Blue Jays Offseason Needs
To describe the Jays' 2013 season as subpar would be an understatement. It was a season of attacks (see: JP Arencibia), lack of discipline, poor fielding, losses, strikeouts (see: JP Arencibia), and injuries (see: Brett Lawrie, José Reyes, Sergio Santos, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson x2, Melky Cabrera, José Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, JA Happ, Ramón Ortiz, Colby Rasmus, Brett Cecil, etc.). This is not to say that there were no positives: The selections of Brett Cecil and Steve Delabar to the American League All-Star team was representative of a cross-bullpen improvement that saw the Jays go from the worst bullpen ERA in the AL in 2012 to 4th in 2013; Casey Janssen emerged as the 'pen's best pitcher two seasons ago and proved his mettle as a closer in his first full season in the role (34/36 in save opportunities, 2.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP); Ryan Goins jumped from off-the-radar to a favourite for the starting job at second base next season, making plays like this constantly. (And while we're talking great plays, here's my pick for defensive play of the year).
While I'm sure I haven't named all of this season's positives (sorry Munenori), the point is that, after the hype of last offseason, no Jays fan was expecting individual improvements or achievements to be the only things to smile about in 2013. So what to do with a team that went 74-88 last season? The reflex answer is likely: uproot the foundations, get what you can for the veterans, and rebuild, rebuild, REBUILD. The problem: this is the result of the rebuild. This doesn't mean that the rebuild was wrong, however. It means the talent is there and, with a few additions, may be able to achieve the expectations of this season. So where need these additions/upgrades be? Here's my list:
Manager: GM Alex Anthopoulos announced long ago that incumbent manager John Gibbons will return in the 2014 season, so I will not dwell long here, but it is important to note that, while Gibby can't be blamed for all of the injuries and poor performances this season, never at any point did it feel as though he did anything to improve on even a small part of the problems the team experienced. Where was the motivation? Where was the central leader? Where was the fire? The manager can't force the players to play well, but he can at least contribute to their mental states. And let's be honest, the Jays are a mentally volatile team of youngsters who are quickly losing confidence in their own abilities.
The Training Staff: To be clear, I don't blame George Poulis and Mike Frostad for the bevy of injuries the Blue Jays experienced this season, but it does feel, sometimes, as though guys who aren't really that injured are taking "precautionary" stints on the DL. I think toughness definitely needs some work, and the training staff has to start picking and choosing which injuries are really serious. (And in terms of player attitudes, the games in April are equally important as the games in September, so if they'd play with their injuries in September, why not play with them now and take September off, after you've clinched?)
Catcher: With JP Arencibia's off-year (.194 BA, 148K, 18 BB, a league-leading 11 errors at Catcher) and inability to take criticism (read: the Gregg Zaun-Dirk Hayhurst incident), the potential the team saw in him (enough to trade top-prospect Travis d'Arnaud in the RA Dickey deal) is being drawn into question. If this team has any intentions of competing next season, they need a sure-thing behind the plate. And it's not Josh Thole, despite his fine fielding. Some rumours have linked the Jays to the Angels' Hank Conger and Chris Ianetta. A deal for either of these players would be illogical. Neither is significantly better than Thole, so if the team sees either as a potential starter, they'd be better off to give Thole the job that give away assets to acquire Josh Thole 2.0. (A deal that included either of these players as well as Angels 2B Howie Kendrick might make sense if the Jays do not overpay. It would be especially sensible if Arencibia were going to Los Angeles in the deal, although I can't imagine Mike Scioscia would be happy with this.)
Pitchers: No, unlike Alex Anthopoulos, I don't believe this is the team's #1 concern. But it's up there. With Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Brandon Morrow returning next year, there are only 2 spots in the rotation left to fill. Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison (particularly the latter, who was recently named AFL Pitcher of the Week) have performed well in the Majors before and should get another chance at the rotation. Dustin McGowan had a great year in the bullpen and is looking to return to his former role. JA Happ is always a possibility to make a strong back-end starter. Todd Redmond had some great appearances this season (although I wouldn't trust him long-term), and Esmil Rogers is a fine backup plan. Yes, the team needs more than what they have, but perhaps not to the degree that is being declared by the media. A Ubaldo Jimenez is too risky for a guy who struggled the past few seasons before finally figuring it out in a contract year. A reunion with Roy Halladay would be too perfect, but (sorry, fans) it seems unlikely. Bartolo Colon had some good games for the Yankees a few years back and pitched well for the A's this year, but can he handle the AL East again? (the Jays have experience with PED-suspended players) What about trades? David Price is unlikely, as it would be an intra-division deal. Max Scherzer would be a nice add, but is he worth Aaron Sanchez and the many other top prospects he would assuredly cost? The Jays may be wise to bring back Josh Johnson, who will be available below value and has a lot to prove this coming season. One must recall he was a 2 time All-Star earlier in his career and he's still only 29.
*Second Base: I put this here only because an upgrade can never hurt. As previously mentioned, Goins was one of the few bright spots to the season, but he's also inexperienced and was not meant to be the second baseman of the future. Nevertheless, he has a good chance at the job next season, especially if Maicer Izturis continues to play as he did this past season (.263/5/32 with 10 errors). With top-end talent potentially in the market in former all-stars Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips, the potential exists to replace Goins, at least for the time being. This is not an urgent need, but it is one to keep an eye on.
As for the rest of the prominent positions on the team, there are imperfections. But to give up on the talent acquired in the 2012 offseason because of one off-season would be a tremendous waste. It will be interesting to see how the Jays and Anthopoulos handle the 2013-4 offseason.
While I'm sure I haven't named all of this season's positives (sorry Munenori), the point is that, after the hype of last offseason, no Jays fan was expecting individual improvements or achievements to be the only things to smile about in 2013. So what to do with a team that went 74-88 last season? The reflex answer is likely: uproot the foundations, get what you can for the veterans, and rebuild, rebuild, REBUILD. The problem: this is the result of the rebuild. This doesn't mean that the rebuild was wrong, however. It means the talent is there and, with a few additions, may be able to achieve the expectations of this season. So where need these additions/upgrades be? Here's my list:
Manager: GM Alex Anthopoulos announced long ago that incumbent manager John Gibbons will return in the 2014 season, so I will not dwell long here, but it is important to note that, while Gibby can't be blamed for all of the injuries and poor performances this season, never at any point did it feel as though he did anything to improve on even a small part of the problems the team experienced. Where was the motivation? Where was the central leader? Where was the fire? The manager can't force the players to play well, but he can at least contribute to their mental states. And let's be honest, the Jays are a mentally volatile team of youngsters who are quickly losing confidence in their own abilities.
The Training Staff: To be clear, I don't blame George Poulis and Mike Frostad for the bevy of injuries the Blue Jays experienced this season, but it does feel, sometimes, as though guys who aren't really that injured are taking "precautionary" stints on the DL. I think toughness definitely needs some work, and the training staff has to start picking and choosing which injuries are really serious. (And in terms of player attitudes, the games in April are equally important as the games in September, so if they'd play with their injuries in September, why not play with them now and take September off, after you've clinched?)
Catcher: With JP Arencibia's off-year (.194 BA, 148K, 18 BB, a league-leading 11 errors at Catcher) and inability to take criticism (read: the Gregg Zaun-Dirk Hayhurst incident), the potential the team saw in him (enough to trade top-prospect Travis d'Arnaud in the RA Dickey deal) is being drawn into question. If this team has any intentions of competing next season, they need a sure-thing behind the plate. And it's not Josh Thole, despite his fine fielding. Some rumours have linked the Jays to the Angels' Hank Conger and Chris Ianetta. A deal for either of these players would be illogical. Neither is significantly better than Thole, so if the team sees either as a potential starter, they'd be better off to give Thole the job that give away assets to acquire Josh Thole 2.0. (A deal that included either of these players as well as Angels 2B Howie Kendrick might make sense if the Jays do not overpay. It would be especially sensible if Arencibia were going to Los Angeles in the deal, although I can't imagine Mike Scioscia would be happy with this.)
Pitchers: No, unlike Alex Anthopoulos, I don't believe this is the team's #1 concern. But it's up there. With Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Brandon Morrow returning next year, there are only 2 spots in the rotation left to fill. Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison (particularly the latter, who was recently named AFL Pitcher of the Week) have performed well in the Majors before and should get another chance at the rotation. Dustin McGowan had a great year in the bullpen and is looking to return to his former role. JA Happ is always a possibility to make a strong back-end starter. Todd Redmond had some great appearances this season (although I wouldn't trust him long-term), and Esmil Rogers is a fine backup plan. Yes, the team needs more than what they have, but perhaps not to the degree that is being declared by the media. A Ubaldo Jimenez is too risky for a guy who struggled the past few seasons before finally figuring it out in a contract year. A reunion with Roy Halladay would be too perfect, but (sorry, fans) it seems unlikely. Bartolo Colon had some good games for the Yankees a few years back and pitched well for the A's this year, but can he handle the AL East again? (the Jays have experience with PED-suspended players) What about trades? David Price is unlikely, as it would be an intra-division deal. Max Scherzer would be a nice add, but is he worth Aaron Sanchez and the many other top prospects he would assuredly cost? The Jays may be wise to bring back Josh Johnson, who will be available below value and has a lot to prove this coming season. One must recall he was a 2 time All-Star earlier in his career and he's still only 29.
*Second Base: I put this here only because an upgrade can never hurt. As previously mentioned, Goins was one of the few bright spots to the season, but he's also inexperienced and was not meant to be the second baseman of the future. Nevertheless, he has a good chance at the job next season, especially if Maicer Izturis continues to play as he did this past season (.263/5/32 with 10 errors). With top-end talent potentially in the market in former all-stars Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips, the potential exists to replace Goins, at least for the time being. This is not an urgent need, but it is one to keep an eye on.
As for the rest of the prominent positions on the team, there are imperfections. But to give up on the talent acquired in the 2012 offseason because of one off-season would be a tremendous waste. It will be interesting to see how the Jays and Anthopoulos handle the 2013-4 offseason.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)